Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA) could be the world’s fastest-growing company.
Moderna’s revenues grew at the incredible rate of 24,112.5% in the quarter ending on 31 March 2021, Stockrow estimates. In comparison, Moderna’s revenues fell by -50.08% in the quarter ending on 31 March 2020.
Similarly, Moderna’s quarterly gross profit grew from $8 million on 31 March 2020 to $1.729 billion on 31 March 2021. Additionally, the quarterly operating income exploded from -$274 million on 31 December 2020 to $1.266 billion on 31 March 2021.
The Incredible Growth at Moderna
The incredible growth at Moderna (MRNA) goes beyond revenues and profits. Moderna’s quarterly operating cash flow grew from -$121 million on 31 March 2020 to $2.973 billion on 31 March 2021.
In comparison, Moderna’s quarterly ending cash flow grew from $404 million on 31 March 2020 to $5.453 billion on 31 March 2021. Thus, Moderna’s ending cash flow grew fivefold in a year.
Consequently, the cash and short-term investments at Moderna grew from $1.219 billion on 31 March 2020 to $7.735 billion on 31 March 2021. Thus Moderna’s cash and short-term investments grew seven times in a year.
Astonishingly, Moderna’s Total Assets grew from $2.068 billion on 31 March 2020 to $12.694 billion on 31 March 2021. Thus, Moderna’s Total Assets grew by $10.626 billion in a year.
Comparatively, Moderna’s Total Debt grew from $152 million on 31 March 2020 to $286 million on 31 March 2021. On the other hand, the Total Liabilities rose from $427 million on 31 March 2020 to $8.856 billion on 31 March 2021.
Mr. Market Prices Moderna Fairly
I think Mr. Market prices Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) fairly. I believe the financial numbers and the growth justify the $185.01 Mr. Market paid for Moderna on 28 May 2021.
I think the $127.30 increase in Moderna’s share price over a year was a rational action by Mr. Market. To explain, Mr. Market paid $57.71 for MRNA on 26 May 2020.
I think the growth justifies the share price at Moderna. I consider Moderna a fairly priced stock with a high margin of safety. I think Moderna has a high margin of safety because it has a rational price, enormous amounts of cash, and growth.
Moderna is the luckiest company on Earth
I consider Moderna (MRNA) the luckiest company on Earth because it makes one of the world’s most popular products. That product is an effective COVID-19 vaccine.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates “the Moderna vaccine was 94.1% effective at preventing laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 illness in people who received two doses who had no evidence of being previously infected.”
In contrast, the CDC estimates “the J&J/Janssen vaccine was 66.3% effective in clinical trials (efficacy) at preventing laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 illness in people who had no evidence of prior infection 2 weeks after receiving the vaccine.”
Similarly, Moderna claims one dose of its COVID-19 vaccine was 93% effective in people ages 12 to 17, The Hill reports. Moderna also claims its two shots of its vaccine were 100% effective in preventing COVID-19 in people ages 12 to 17.
Predictably, demand for the Moderna vaccine is high. Moderna had $18.4 billion in COVID-19 vaccine orders in February 2021, Fierce Pharma estimates. That number grew from $11.7 billion in January 2021.
Private hospitals in one country Thailand, plan to order five million Moderna vaccine doses, Thaiger reports. Thai private hospitals will charge up to 3,000 baht ($95.72) for each Moderna vaccine shot, Thaiger claims.
Moderna is one of three companies that can supply a product all sane people want, a mRNA coronavirus vaccine. The only other companies with a similar product are Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX). “The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 95% effective at preventing laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 illness in people without evidence of previous infection,” The CDC estimates.
Is Moderna more than a Vaccine?
Moderna Inc. (MRNA) is commercializing a revolutionary biotechnology they call messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA).
The mRNA are single-stranded molecules that carry genetic code from DNA to a cell’s ribosomes. A good way to think of mRNA is as software that reprograms a cell to take certain actions. For example, the Moderna mRNA vaccine reprograms t-cells to attack and destroy the coronavirus.
The Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines are more effective than the J&J/Janssen vaccine because that product relies on traditional technology. In a traditional vaccine, they inject viruses or pieces of viruses into the bloodstream.
The hope behind traditional vaccines is that exposure to small amounts of viruses will lead to immunity. In contrast, an mRNA vaccine reprograms the immune system to destroy viruses.
Moderna could be the world’s best growth company
Moderna has several mRNA vaccines under development. Moderna’s potential mRNA vaccines include: a Zika vaccine, a Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine, a Human metapneumovirus and parainfluenza virus 3 (hMPV/PIV3) vaccine, an Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) vaccine, a flu vaccine, a Nipah vaccine, an Influenza H7N9 vaccine, and an HIV vaccine. HIV is the virus that causes AIDS.
Other mRNA products under development at Moderna include personalized cancer vaccines, an antibody against Chikungunya virus, Systemic Secreted & Cell Surface Therapeutics for hepatitis and autoimmune diseases, Intratumoral Immuno-Oncology treatments for tumors, Localized Regenerative Therapeutics, and Systemic Intracellular Therapeutics.
Could Moderna Treat Long-Haul COVID?
One interesting product Moderna (MRNA) could develop is a mRNA treatment for Long Haul COVID-19. Elemental contributor Sadie Morghan writes: “Some long-haul folks are lucky and getting vaccinated clears them right up.”
“Sadly, I’m not one of them. But I’m getting better, and grateful for it,” Morghan observes. “Getting vaccinated helped quite a bit. I hardly ever have trouble lifting a coffee cup anymore. And on most days, I seem to have more good minutes. Good minutes are when my head clears and I feel like myself.”
Thus, Moderna could make money by treating Long Haul COVID. Long Haul COVID is a growing problem.
Stanford University researchers estimate over 70% of COVID-19 patients they studied reported at least one long-haul symptom, The San Francisco Chronicle reports. The patients Stanford studied reported 84 different Long Haul COVID-19 symptoms that lasted for at least three months.
“If 1% of those who have had COVID-19 develop ‘long COVID,’ that would be over 300,000 people,” said Dr. Michael Peluso of the University of California at San Francisco Medical School told The Chronicle.
I think Long-Haul COVID-19 treatment will be big business and Moderna has a treatment: mRNA. The company could adapt the vaccine or the mRNA to create a long-haul COVID-19 treatment.
I think Moderna is a terrific company that is capable of enormous growth. If any of the other products are as successful as the COVID-19 vaccine Moderna could be the world’s best growth company.
Originally published at https://marketmadhouse.com on May 28, 2021.