The coronavirus could change the outcome of the 2020 Presidential Election by killing large numbers of voters.
The data shows those most likely to die from coronavirus are the probable voters. Worldometers estimates 95.4% of New Yorkers who died from coronavirus as of 14 April 2020 were over 45 years old.
Meanwhile, Pew Research estimates that people over 55 cast 49% of the votes in the United States. To elaborate, Pew calculates that Baby Boomers (persons born between 1946 and 1964) and older generates cast 49% of votes in 2016.
Coronavirus can affect the Election
Given those numbers, I think coronavirus could kill enough people to affect the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.
Frighteningly, Worldometers estimates 68,715 Americans died of the coronavirus between 1 January 2020 and 4 May 2020. Thus, 65,664 probable American voters could have died so far this year. To explain, 65,664 is 95.4% of 68,715. If the high death rate continues until November, it could affect elections.
For instance, there were 4,020 coronavirus deaths in Michigan as of 3 May 2020. The New York Times estimates President Donald J. Trump (R-Florida) won Michigan, an important swing state by 10,704 in 2016.
If the coronavirus pandemic continues until November, it could kill over 10,704 voters in Michigan. That could affect the outcome of the presidential election.
How Coronavirus can Hurt Trump’s Reelection Chances
A die off of older voters could hurt President Donald J. Trump’s (R-Florida) reelection chances. Business Insider estimates that 53% of voters over 50 supported Trump in 2016.
Hence, coroanvirus could kill the voters Trump will need most in November. An enormous problem for Trump could be retirement communities such as Florida’s the Villages. Politico writer Michael Grunwald estimates over 70% of the Villages’ residents voted for Trump in 2016.
What happens to Trump, if coronavirus decimates retirement communities such as the Villages. Grunwald thinks it was retirees who helped Trump carry Florida by 112,911 votes in 2016. Fortunately for Trump, there were only 1,364 coronavirus deaths in Florida as of 3 May 2020.
Places such at the Villages could be ground zero for COVID-19 because of demographics. Over 40% of coronavirus-related deaths in Texas were in nursing homes and assisted living facilities, Hearst newspapers estimates.
In addition, over 7,000 US nursing home patient had died of coroanvirus as of 17 April 2020, The New York Times estimates. In addition, The New York Times claims nursing patients accounted for one fifth of the US coronavirus deaths before 17 April 2020. Consequently, coronavirus could decimate Trump strongholds such as the Villages.
Will Coronavirus Scare Voters away from the Polls
Another problem for Trump could be coronavirus scaring voters away from the polls.
Older people are more susceptible to coronavirus. For instance, Stat News estimates 13.4% of coronavirus victims over 80, 8.6% of coronavirus patients over 70, and 4% of coronavirus patients over 60 died.
Thus, older voters; and probable Trump supporters, have a powerful incentive not to go to the polls in November. To explain, surviving seniors could fear going to the polls because of the danger of caching coronavirus from other seniors.
Similarly, the country could face a shortage of poll workers in September. Pew estimates 58% of US poll workers were over 61 and 27% of US poll workers were over 70 in 2018. That could be problematic because the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates people between 65 and 84 account for 4%-11% of coronavirus deaths.
Why America Needs Mail in Elections
Therefore, the election could be slow because large numbers of poll workers could be dead or too scared to work by November. Tellingly, Morning Consult estimates 74% of voters over 65 admit they could be afraid to go to the polls in November because of coronavirus.
Hence, we could face a major election fiasco with lengthy lines and large numbers of uncounted votes in November. Given these numbers, I think President Trump needs to rethink his opposition to mail-in voting. On 4 November 2020, the Donald could wish large numbers of his supporters had access to mail-in ballots.
Therefore, I think the pandemic will affect the 2020 presidential election. Large numbers of voters could either be dead or too scared to go near the polls by November.
Originally published at https://marketmadhouse.com on May 4, 2020.